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Is There A Decline in International Student Enrollment at US Colleges?

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Tens of thousands of international students apply to and attend colleges across the US every year. These students form a core part of college communities, and colleges love the global perspective they provide, and the tuition dollars they so often bring with them. Recently, however, there have been moves by the US administration to curtail the number of international students entering the US, and that has been reflected in a drop in visas issued this May.

This leads to the questions of why this is happening, if this trend will continue, and what this portends for both universities and international students. In this article, we’re going to break down this news piece by piece, and explain what impacts it may have on you. Let’s jump right in!

A Decline in Issued Visas

At the heart of the current news story is an article which details how the number of students visas (F-1 and J-1) issued in May of this year declined by more than 12,000 F-1 visas, a 22% drop from the previous year. This is a staggering decline, and while visas are not the full picture, this is a troubling trend. 

We won’t know until September, when international students arrive on campus (or don’t as the case may be), just how much of an impact this will have on international student enrollment. May is also the first month we saw this decline happen; we are still waiting for more data on June, but this year’s earlier numbers were only slightly lower than in previous years. 

There are several possible reasons for this. The first was the administration’s pause in issuing visas; while this has since resumed, there are also now additional screening requirements in place, and a pause when no visas were issued would definitively decrease the overall number of students who received one. The State Department does not release the number of students it interviews or the number of applications it processes, so it is impossible to say for sure this is the cause. 

The other possible contributing factor is a decline in student interest in coming to the US for college. This is harder to measure, although some survey data indicates that there has been a reasonable decrease in international student interest, to the lowest levels since the Covid 19 pandemic. 

Anecdotally, we have also seen a decline in international student interest in studying in the US. We work with a fair number of international students each year, and while many are still interested in US universities, there has been an increase in those looking for other options. 

A final possible contributing factor is that there may be a decline in reissued visas. When international students go home for the summer, they need a new visa to return. Many international students saw the chaos brewing, and decided that they were going to stay in the US over the summer and avoid the hassle. While we are glad this was an option students could pursue, this is clearly not ideal, as students may want to visit their home and family at some point. 

How This Impacts Colleges

Around 6% of all college students in the US are international students. However, many colleges are expecting overall declines in enrollment, in both undergraduate and graduate student populations. A drop in international students is a component of it, but not the entire picture. 

That said, a drop in international student enrollment will have an outsized impact on college revenues. A recent study found that any noticeable decline would lead to billions in lost revenue for colleges. This makes sense; international students are often charged higher tuition than their domestic counterparts, and have less access to financial aid, meaning they are more likely to pay the full sticker price of the university. 

Many universities do rely on tuition dollars to keep the lights on, and recruiting full-pay international students, both to undergraduate programs and master’s programs, is a major strategy they have to manage their revenue. 

Colleges have been grappling with a decline in enrollment for a while; seeing it as inevitable due to how demographic trends in the US are shifting. For a long while, many colleges have looked to international students to fill this gap, but recent decisions taken by the US administration have put a rather solid stop to that plan. This is leaving colleges scrambling, with many looking to avoid budget shortfalls. 

A final important note is that not all colleges are going to be impacted equally by this. The most prestigious schools can run off their endowments, though even they may feel the pinch as governmental grants become scarcer. Some prestigious schools with smaller endowments may feel the sting, and put more effort into recruiting full-pay students. This might make it more difficult for students requiring financial aid or loans, especially given recent changes to loan regulations.

Specific Issues

While the administration’s decisions on visas and student loans are something that impacts all universities broadly, the government has also taken a particular interest in the affairs and operations of a number of specific universities, most notably and publicly Harvard and Columbia. 

This keeps updating, with the most recent news, being a State Department suspension of Harvard’s participation in the J-1 visa program. These are the visas given to short term international exchange students, rather than the longer term F-1 visas. Harvard is of course going to object to this in court, joining the already significant number of lawsuits between the school and the government. 

This is something to take note of for these particular schools, as while these policies are not likely to go through, how the courts rule can be highly variable, and an overfocus by the administration on these schools in particular can be worrying for students. You can still apply to them, but this is another concern to be aware of, over and above any other factors you take into account when building your college list.

How This Impacts International Students

So how does all of this impact you as an international student, either one actively enrolled in a US college, or considering applying? We’ll answer these questions separately, as the concerns they pose are entirely distinct. 

If you are currently an international student enrolled at a US university, your primary concern is and should remain finishing your studies and graduating. In most cases, students who have visas are not targeted as much, save for those who are engaged in political speech or protest the administration does not approve of. That said, as the cases with Harvard have shown, sweeping change can come fast and impact currently enrolled students.

We recommend coordinating with the international students office at your university for any questions about your visa or status. We also recommend seeing if you can stay in the US over summers or while school is on holiday; while returning home may be preferred, not needing to deal with the visa process anew may be the best approach, especially with the level of uncertainty in the State Department at the moment. 

Finally, you may want to look into backup options; schools you could transfer to outside the US. We do not anticipate this coming to pass, but having a plan already in place for the worst case scenario can save you a lot of grief in the long run. 

If you are an international student currently planning on applying to a US college, then this news should not necessarily discourage you. It is alarming, and there may be new barriers to entry, but colleges still want international students, especially ones able to pay the full cost of tuition.

Admissions to certain schools may also be easier as an international student, but this is only true for schools that are already less popular; Harvard certainly isn’t going to get any easier to get into, regardless of the hurdles they are facing at the moment. Other schools, however, will look to international students to shore up declining enrollment, even as the number of international applicants dips as well. Note that these schools are generally going to expect international students to pay the full cost of their tuition.

This can and should be factored in when drawing up your college list and determining which schools are best worth your time. As we’ve discussed before, some international students have found that applying to schools outside the US is more appealing than in previous years, as the political uncertainty is too much of a downside.

Final Thoughts

International students are a small but key component of the university system in the US, but how this works is changing rapidly as the current administration makes new policy positions clear. While the full impacts of these changes remains to be seen, it is clear this will create a significant number of problems, both for the colleges and the students in question. We hope this article has given you insight into what these changes are, and how the shifting situation may impact you. 

If you are looking for more personalized insight, or advice on your own college applications, then schedule a free consultation with us today. Ivy Scholars has a long track record of helping international students get into top universities, both in the US and otherwise, and we’re always happy to hear from you.

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