Probably the question students ask us the most, whether when we’re just getting started or as we’re deciding whether to apply Early Decision, is: “what are my chances of getting in?” This is a completely reasonable question, and quite a popular one as well, with an entire reddit community devoted to students asking this, and sourcing the answers from the highest source of wisdom: strangers on the internet. In this article, we’re going to explain if and how you can try and calculate your chances of admission, and the inherent problems with doing so. We do want to caution at the beginning that you can never be one hundred percent certain of the future, no matter how much data you have, or how good you are at prognostication. There are no certain things in college admissions, but let’s see how you can determine your chances.
How College Admissions Chances Work
To help you understand this process, we’re going to explain the various factors which are considered when admissions officers review an application. We’ll go through these in sequence, since what calculating admissions chances really means is trying to divine what admissions officers will think of your application. While there is no way to be certain, we will lead you through our logic.
Your High School Grades
Having high grades does not increase your chances of admission. Having spotty grades, or holes in your transcript, decreases your chances of admission. Now, there are some occasional exceptions to this; recruited athletes sometimes get a pass, and colleges do consider extenuating circumstances which have impacted your academic progress. If your grades are at or above the average for admitted students, then you’re doing okay.
Your Test Scores
While some colleges remain test-optional, many more have returned to requiring test scores. These operate much like grades; for the most part having very high test scores won’t get you into a school, especially for top schools. At best, they can add another point to confirming you are qualified and prepared for the school’s workload. If your test scores are at or above average for a particular school, then they won’t hurt your chances of admission. If a school is test optional, then having low scores also won’t hurt your chances of admission.
Your Extracurriculars
There are no extracurriculars which guarantee you get into a top college. Instead, what we look for is how well your extracurriculars show off your intellectual vitality and dedication to your community, and how well they align with any major you are considering pursuing. What makes activities good is how they contribute to your particular narrative.
This is very subjective, and based in large part on the college you are applying to, and the major within that college. Applying to computer science without any coding experience is much harder than applying to be an archaeology major without dig experience. Colleges do consider extenuating circumstances here as well, such as if you had to care for siblings or work to support your family.
Your Letters of Recommendation
You won’t be able to read these letters of course, but they should come from teachers who know you well, and who can speak to your aptitude and attitude as a student. If you don’t have any classes where you are performing well and trying your best, that will hurt your letters of recommendation. This is one of the harder aspects of an application to suss out online. In general, great letters of recommendation may move the needle slightly, but bad ones can hurt your application.
Now, teachers won’t write negative letters, but if they are unable to speak highly of you, then it is possible for the letters to be terse, brief, and say much with implication. There is no way to know what these letters say, but you do know how you’ve performed in class, and what there is for your teachers to say about you.
Demographic Information
Due to the Supreme Court, colleges are not allowed to consider your race or ethnicity in college admissions. That said, other aspects of your demographic information can be considered. One incredibly important consideration is gender. Many top colleges are trying to maintain some semblance of a gender balance, which is difficult, as more women than men are applying, and female applicants have higher average grades and test scores than their male counterparts. Now, these rates can and do change between majors, but female applicants often face a more difficult path to admission than their male peers.
The other important piece of demographic information is where you’re from. State schools advantage in-state students, international students always face additional challenges, and while you aren’t directly compared to other students, your application is read in the context of your region. Top colleges especially like to brag about having students from every state, so there is going to be more competition if you’re from California or Texas than Delaware or North Dakota.
Your Essays
These are not always included in online posts asking about chances, and even then are often described in only vague terms. This makes them hard to evaluate; what you write about is far less important and impactful than how your essay is constructed. Essays are also one of the most important factors in the final admissions decision; while they don’t automatically get you in, they are how admissions officers get to know you, and without reading them, it can be quite hard to have a sense of what your chances actually are.
We have several times worked with students with absolutely stellar accomplishments and resumes, but with ill conceived and poorly crafted essays. They will come to us after getting rejected early decision, and we will help them tell their stories in ways that colleges like to hear, fully showing what they are capable of. Their profiles didn’t change a hair, but their chances of actually getting in went up significantly.
Application Hooks
There are finally some specific situations which can improve your odds of acceptance at given colleges. If you are a legacy student or a recruited athlete, if your parents work for the school, or if you have exceptionally wealthy or famous parents, then you have a much better chance of acceptance than your stats may indicate, and higher stats are far more of a force multiplier. These are very rare, but are incredibly impactful.
Determining Your Own Admissions Chances
Evaluating your admissions chances means reading your application the way admissions officers would, and trying to put yourself in their shoes. This is quite difficult to do, and one of the reasons that most attempts to do this online lead to naught but stressing you out more. If you do want to evaluate your chances, based on the criteria we have set out above, here is our process for doing so.
Go through your application, and compare your stats to a particular school, answering the following questions:
- Are your grades and test scores within or above the middle quartile for the school?
- Do you have any particular hooks to connect you with the school?
- Which major are you applying to within the school, and how competitive is that major?
- How well do your extracurriculars highlight your interest in and readiness for the particular major you are interested in?
- Are you applying for the school early decision (if they offer it)?
- Do you have financial need, and are you applying for financial aid?
Even when you answer all these questions, you can only dial in on a range of possibilities for admission. There is never a sure thing, unless a school has automatic admissions thresholds, like UT Austin (and even then, there are no guarantees of getting the major you want). We realize this may not be the answer you want, but that’s the unfortunate state of college admissions; nothing is truly certain, and there’s no way to know if a college will admit you besides to apply.
Final Thoughts
The biggest challenge when it comes to determining your chances of admission is that applications do not exist in a vacuum. You are not compared directly to other applicants, but your application is read as part of a larger pool. If there are many applicants to the major you’ve selected, or your particular achievements are equaled by many other applicants, then you may get lost in the sea. Alternatively, some aspect of your application may match something they’re specifically looking for this year. There’s no real way to know.
We do understand the urge to ask what your chances are, the driving intensity and anxiety that students feel as they see acceptance rates drop and they sweat over their essays. We don’t blame you for asking these questions, we just want to caution you on who you trust to answer them accurately. If you want to hear from our experts on what your chances are, or want to maximize the potential impact of your essays, then schedule a free consultation with us today, we’re always happy to hear from you.
